A study of NCAA basketball games during the 2004-05 season found that when games are played on neutral courts (regular season and postseason), fouls assessed are relatively even at the end of the contest. “The probability of the next foul being called on a team increases as the net foul differential increases,” Pierce says. “So, fans who keep an eye on the foul trends during a game can be pretty certain that if their team has two fouls and the other team has six, their team will be called for the next foul.
The most frightening thing I’ve read all week regarding the Buckeyes’ chances in the NCAA tournament. I’m terrified that they’ll get tripped up by foul trouble more than anything else, and not fouling is a key part of their defensive strategy. Furthermore, OSU has a rare combination of low foul rate and high steal rate, and it wouldn’t take many calls to go from “steal” (no foul) to “foul” to get the Buckeyes’ short rotation in trouble. Ugh.
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